Build the instrument before you believe the reading.

Personal-investing research done the slow way: backtests that cannot look ahead, costs measured from live quotes, and null results reported as carefully as wins.

The paper

Thirty-One Signals, Six Bets

Why a retail account cannot assemble enough independent bets to detect an edge it might have — and why more price signals don't help.

Signals
31
Independent bets
5.6
At |t| ≥ 2
0
Bets/yr vs needed
67/ 1,300
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